Archive for the ‘economy’ Category

Afghanistan, Great Presidents, and Hamlet

Monday, November 30th, 2009
Reconsidering Afghanistan (narrow)
Image by Truthout.org via Flickr

This has not been an easy decade. It started off with war, threats of war, and news of war. As the decade draws to a close and Americans continue to suffer from the fatigue of a never-ending war, we need President Obama to answer our questions about where we’re headed in Afghanistan and whether it’s the right direction for America. A recent poll taken by ABC News/Washington Post indicates that support for the war in Afghanistan has reached a new low. Only 44 percent say the war has been worth fighting and 52 percent say it has not been worth it—up 13 points from last December. Other polls indicate that only 37 percent of Americans support escalation of the war.

People have said that President Obama is the greatest orator of his generation. He’s a wordsmith and speeches are his tool of choice. We’ve certainly heard enough of them since he’s taken office—he’s had a bullhorn in hand every day. But the right words have eluded him as he struggles to convince Americans that the administration has the right policy on the war in Afghanistan. There’s an uncomfortable feeling growing among the peasants that the President is using hubris to disguise a lack of clear direction, but the common-folk are notorious for losing patience when their leaders get fuzzy on details.

The President’s approval rating is down and people are concerned about sustaining a costly war during this economic downturn. Elections are won with ideas. Public opinion in times of crisis is won with words, specific ones that use blunt language and common sense. Obama is a gifted rhetorical poet and his speechifying has captivated even the hearts and minds of the French. But the time for Hamlet is over—“that it should come to this,” Shakespeare’s Danish Prince agonizes as he struggles to make sense of his circumstances. While uncertainty may have been a personal quirk of Hamlet, it’s not a trait we want to see in our President. To address the anxiety that’s overcome this country, the time has come when Americans need to hear the bottom-line.

This is the mark of a great president.

In October, 1962, a young president delivered a series of speeches that spoke frankly about the threat of nuclear missiles in Cuba. President John F. Kennedy outlined in clear, precise language the steps he intended to take to keep Americans safe. Unless we hear a message this blunt, how can be certain that, in 2009, another young president has a plan to keep us safe? This fear drives the anxiety that we’re feeling as we watch the dollar plunge and the budget deficit soar.

As an FBI agent working counterintelligence cases, I came to a deep respect for the importance of words. In a trial, FBI agents testify under oath to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. But here’s the tricky part: half-truths are as deceptive as a lie. When interviewing suspects, I found the really good spies were quite adept at answering my questions with just enough truth in their response to shut me up—at least for a while. After I turned it over in my mind, however, I realized that the answer provoked more questions than it answered. Politicians are experts in telling half-truths. “I didn’t lie.” No, but you didn’t tell the whole truth, either. We do the same thing in relationships, tax returns, and resumes.

President Obama has not successfully persuaded Americans that Afghanistan is a war worth fighting. We read the news. We know that Transparency International has bumped Afghanistan up three notches this year to become the second most-corrupt country in the world. In this economic crisis, we have a need to know how billions of taxpayer’s dollars are being invested in Afghanistan.

When we hear a half-truth, it leaves us hanging, not satisfied. We’ve not been lied to, but there is more to the story, and we know it. We hear what we want to hear. And everyone wants to hear something different. This is the stuff of nightly news, political commentators, and late night TV.

Americans will not be persuaded that this country is on the right course until our young president uses his tool of choice and delivers a series of speeches that speak frankly about our policy in Afghanistan. That is has come to this—Hamlet couldn’t have said it better.

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Why Fears of a Double-Dip Recession Could be Good for the American Psyche

Saturday, September 19th, 2009

Just when news of stock market gains and a jump in home sales made us feel as though the recession was over, economists and market analysts began to systematically plant the idea in our minds that this could turn into a double-dip recession. The reason for this approach is clear. If we’re prepared for the worst, bad becomes the new good.

Nothing gets our attention like fear. When leaders or experts make extreme predictions, such as a second downturn in the economny, we initially react with alarm—it’s something unwanted and undesirable. However, at the same time we begin to prepare ourselves psychologically for the possibility. Paul Krugman, the Princeton professor and Nobel-winning economist, is predicting a double-dip or W-shaped recession. In a recent Business Times interview he said “some of the support measures, especially fiscal stimulus, will reach their peak later this year, and then recede. If weak labor markets continue to act as a drag, a W-shaped recovery is quite possible.” The New York Times’ Economix blog highlights half a dozen other economists who also forecast a double-dip recession.

Unlike normal recessions, a double-dip is one where the bubble bursts and there is an initial correction in the market. As the market begins to improve, investors feel there’s a return to normalcy. Corporations can temporarily improve the bottom line by reducing salaries and other expenses; however, the trend can’t continue without an actual increase in sales. If companies can’t eventually make profits, the recovery begins to unravel and this leads to the second major drop in the market.
The U.S. witnessed a W-shaped recovery during the Great Depression in two separate downturns—one from 1929-1933 and the other from 1937-1938. The only other double-dip recovery, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research’s official business cycle dating committee, was the twin recessions of 1980 and 1981-1982. And now there’s fear that history is going to repeat itself with the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

Fear is a powerful incentive to change our attitudes, beliefs, and opinions. Politicians have scared us into believing that unless the U.S. government uses billions of taxpayer dollars to bail out our financial systems, we will sink into a Depression. Messages like this are intended to change our attitude so we feel better about where our money is going. They’re also intended to assure us that our politicians are doing their job.

This is a tool of influence that I’ve used for years as an FBI counterintelligence agent. I frequently introduced an “extreme message” for the purpose of persuading the targets of my investigation to shift their attitude and settle for a less dramatic alternative. I called it “inoculation.” One of my targets was an old-style Soviet spy who took his wife shopping every Sunday. One day she was caught shoving an XXL girdle into her vinyl handbag and was detained by store security. The target was told that the FBI would be notified of the incident. Shaken, he knew that if the Soviet Consulate found out, he would be labeled a “security risk” and sent back home with his career, and pension, in ruins. For days I watched his standard-issue trauma—shaking, not eating, sticking to the ceiling every time the phone rang—so that by the time I interviewed him, he was expecting the worst. He was so inoculated with fear of what the FBI would expect of him that when I proposed something far less painful, he jumped at it, and thought it a good bargain at that!

Inoculation as a tool of influence is effective because after the threats of a worst-case scenario—in this case, a double-dip recession—we’re more than likely to accept a mediocre economic recovery with enthusiasm and support for our politicians. This is, of course, in keep with their plan. Can Americans be persuaded to batten down the hatches and weather out another financial storm? I think so. And we’ll feel good about it, too, because while we’re preparing for the worst, it won’t be as bad as it could have been.

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